BASF cuts full-year profit outlook on uncertainty over U.S. tariffs

BASF's stock dropped by 1.8% following a revision of its earnings forecast, citing slower global growth and market uncertainties due to recently imposed U.S. tariffs.

The company has lowered its EBITDA outlook for fiscal year 2025 to between €7.3 billion and €7.7 billion, down from a previous estimate of €8 billion to €8.4 billion, though it still expects a free cash flow of €400 million to €800 million.

In preliminary second-quarter results, BASF reported a 2.1% decrease in sales year-over-year, totaling €15.77 billion, and a 9.7% decline in EBITDA, attributed to adverse currency impacts and lower prices in its chemicals division.

Despite the overall decline in sales and EBITDA, BASF experienced a slight increase in volumes, particularly in the agricultural solutions and surface technologies sectors.

Recommendation Rating: Caution Advised

BASF (BASF) experienced a 1.8% decline in its stock during Friday's trading session, following a revision of its earnings forecast for the year. The company cites an expectation of slower global growth, largely influenced by the U.S. tariffs introduced in early April, which have created significant market uncertainties.

For fiscal year 2025, BASF has adjusted its earnings outlook. The company now anticipates EBITDA, excluding special items, to range between €7.3 billion and €7.7 billion ($8.5 billion to $9 billion), a decrease from its previous estimate of €8 billion to €8.4 billion ($9.4 billion to $9.8 billion). Despite the revised earnings guidance, BASF continues to project a free cash flow between €400 million and €800 million for 2025.

In its preliminary second-quarter results, BASF reported a 2.1% year-over-year decrease in sales, totaling €15.77 billion ($18.4 billion). The EBITDA before special items for this quarter fell by 9.7%, landing at €1.77 billion ($2.1 billion). The downturn reflects adverse currency impacts across all segments and reduced prices, particularly in the chemicals division. Analyst estimates set the Q2 sales figure at approximately €15.8 billion, based on insights from Vara Research.

On a more positive note, BASF indicated a slight increase in volumes compared to the same quarter last year, bolstered by robust growth in the agricultural solutions and surface technologies sectors.