Nvidia likely only to sell a small number of GPUs to China, Wells Fargo says

• Wells Fargo believes potential approval for Nvidia to sell H200 GPUs in China would be a modest positive, since current investor expectations do not already factor in significant China sales.

• Analyst Aaron Rakers estimates Nvidia could sell about 200,000 H200 chips in China, generating roughly $6–8 billion in revenue at an average selling price of $35,000–40,000 per chip, while maintaining an Overweight rating on the stock.

• Reports indicate Chinese regulators may allow major AI companies to purchase H200 GPUs primarily for AI model training, while domestic GPU makers would continue supplying hardware for AI inference tasks.

• The potential sales follow a U.S. policy change allowing Nvidia to ship H200 chips to China, though Chinese regulators have not yet granted final customer purchase approval; Nvidia's shares rose as investors reacted to the possibility.

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Nvidia’s Potential China H200 Sales Seen as a Moderate Boost

Wells Fargo remains cautious about the impact of Nvidia’s potential H200 GPU sales to China, despite growing optimism that the company may regain limited access to the Chinese market.

Analyst Aaron Rakers said investor expectations do not currently include meaningful H200 sales in China, making any approved shipments a modest positive development. He estimates Nvidia could sell around 200,000 H200 units, generating approximately $6 billion to $8 billion in revenue, with an average selling price of about $35,000 to $40,000 per chip.

Rakers maintains an Overweight rating on Nvidia, reflecting continued confidence in the company’s long-term growth prospects.

Reports earlier this week suggested that Chinese authorities may permit limited purchases of Nvidia’s H200 GPUs by major artificial intelligence companies. The chips would reportedly be used mainly for AI model training, while Chinese GPU manufacturers would continue supplying hardware for AI inference workloads.